Eric Painter

Nonfarm Employment Jumps

Ericp — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:25:02 +0000

According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, nonfarm payrolls increased in January by 243,000. This marked the largest gain in nonfarm employment since April 2011. The average 2011 gain per month came in at 152,000. Since a decline in nonfarm payrolls in early 2010, 36% of the jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010 have been recovered. Nonfarm payrolls measure the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses.

This report combined with other strong economic news from today has had a positive result on stocks. Which has had a negative impact on bonds today as money flows out of bonds and into stocks.

Private-Sector Employment Increases

Ericp — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 18:01:09 +0000

According to the ADP National Employment Report, private-sector employment increased 170,000 from December to January. This marks the 24th consecutive month of increases. The average for the last three months of gains has been 223,000 versus an average of 163,000 per month for all of 2011.

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 392,000 of ADP’s 500,000 U.S. business clients and roughly 24 million employees working in all 19 of the major North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) private industrial sectors.

Featured Chart for Tuesday, January 31st

Ericp — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 15:19:55 +0000

According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, prices in the 20-City Composite fell in 19 of the 20 cities from October to November. Only Phoenix saw an increase, with prices moving up .6% from October to November. Prices were also down 3.7% from November 2010 to November 2011.

The Case-Shiller Price Indices are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided.

Featured Chart for Monday, January 30th

Ericp — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 17:24:49 +0000

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income for December increased .5%, up from an increase of .1% in November. Disposable personal income also increased in December, up .4% from November.

Personal income is an individual’s total earnings from wages, passive enterprises, and investment interest and dividends. Disposable income is the amount left over after taxes.

Q4 GDP Increases Featured Chart for Friday, January 27th

Ericp — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 19:47:33 +0000

Fourth quarter GDP rises 2.8%, the fastest growth since Q2 of 2010. Though a large percentage of the increase is a result of a buildup in inventories, consumer spending also saw an increase from the previous 2011 Q3 reading. From Q3 to Q4, consumer spending increased 2.0%, up from 1.7%.

Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the total production and consumption of goods and services in the U.S. GDP components like consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy’s behavior.

Featured Chart for Thursday, January 26th

Ericp — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 17:33:36 +0000

Durable-goods orders rose 3.0% in December, marking the third consecutive month of gains. The increase was fueled in large part by an 18.9% increase in nondefense aircraft and parts, though primary metals, machinery, electronics and communications equipment all saw nice gains.

Durable-goods orders measures new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. A durable good is defined as a good which lasts an extended period of time (over three years).

Featured Chart for Monday, January 23rd

Ericp — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 21:46:54 +0000

Existing-home sales for December 2011 increased 5% from November. This is the third consecutive month of increases and the second highest reading of 2011. The December level was also 3.6% above December 2010, and as a whole, existing-home sales were up 1.7% from 2010. Total housing inventory dropped 9.2% for December, representing a 6.2-month supply, down from a 7.2-month supply in November.

Existing Home Sales is a measure of the selling rate of pre-owned single-family homes, collected by the National Association of Realtors from 650 realtor associations. It includes a geographical breakdown, as well as a measure of prices and house inventory, the number of months it would take to deplete the existing supply of pre-owned houses at the current sales pace.

Featured Chart for Wednesday, January 18th

Ericp — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 18:20:19 +0000

The National Association of Home Builders (HAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rises in January to a reading of 25. This is up 4 points from the previous December reading of 21 and marks the 4th consecutive month of increases. The last time the HMI had a reading of 25 or more was in June of 2007. Though moving in an encouraging direction, readings over 50 are considered positive, a level last reached in April of 2006.

The NAHB Housing Market Index is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next 6 months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

November Housing Starts Increase

Ericp — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 16:42:11 +0000

Housing starts for November rose 9.3% to 685,000. The highest annual rate since April 2010. Leading the way was multi-family units, rising 32.2%. Single-family units saw an increase of 2.3%. Over the last year, housing starts are up 24.3%.

The Housing Starts report measures the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month. A start in construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building and is comprised primarily of residential housing. Changes in the rate of housing starts tell us a lot about demand for homes and construction outlook. Furthermore, each time a new home is started, construction employment rises, revenues for the home builder and a myriad of other producers also increase; the economic “ripple effect” can be substantial.

DJIA Average Monthly Returns

Ericp — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 17:40:47 +0000

Displayed in this chart are the average monthly returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1929. July tops the list with an average return of 1.5%, while December and January come in second and fourth overall. It’s possible stocks could be in for gain before year-end because of something that’s become known as the “Santa Claus Rally”. The Santa Claus Rally is usually a surge in Stocks in the week between Christmas and New Years. So keep an eye on Stocks in the week ahead.